MARKET STRUCTURE · UKRAINE
Ukraine reports recapturing territory in southern Ukraine as the war enters its fifth year
Change
Ukraine’s leadership said its forces have regained roughly 300–400 sq km of territory in southern Ukraine since the end of January 2026, alongside improved air defences that kept Kyiv’s power on despite recent drone and missile barrages.
Why it matters
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Ukraine recaptured 300 sq km in the south, and Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskii later put the figure at 400 sq km, stating the gains occurred since the end of January 2026. If accurate, this represents a measurable shift from a largely frozen frontline narrative and can alter local logistics, defensive lines, and targeting priorities. Separately, Ukraine cited improved air defences that kept electricity on in Kyiv despite two drone-and-missile barrages in the past week, changing short-term expectations for outage-driven disruption in the capital. The combination of territorial movement and reduced strike impact affects operational planning assumptions for actors tied to southern front access and Kyiv-based continuity.
Implications
- • Southern frontlines and control lines have shifted by ~300–400 sq km since late Jan 2026.
- • Local logistics routes, defensive positions, and targeting priorities change on the southern axis.
- • Kyiv outage risk from recent strike waves appears reduced due to improved air defence.
- • Conflicting official figures (300 vs 400 sq km) add uncertainty to the exact scale of gains.
Who is affected
- • Ukrainian Armed Forces and Russian forces operating on the southern front
- • Kyiv-based government operations and critical infrastructure operators (power, utilities)
- • Humanitarian and logistics organizations operating near southern control lines
- • Insurers and security-risk teams covering operations in Ukraine
Source
Topics