MARKET STRUCTURE · CHINA
Trump order targets Iran oil buyers with 25% tariff
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President Donald Trump signed an executive order authorizing a 25% tariff on any country that does business with Iran.
Why it matters
The executive order creates a tariff-based penalty that can be applied to third countries trading with Iran, not just to Iranian entities, expanding the set of actors facing direct US trade costs. Because China reportedly buys more than 80% of Iranian crude, the measure directly intersects with China-facing trade flows tied to Iranian oil exports. The move increases the leverage and stakes around ongoing Washington–Tehran contacts, including the February 6 Oman-hosted indirect negotiations and the announced continuation of talks. It also introduces a new variable for firms and governments whose supply chains, shipping, insurance, or payments touch Iran-linked commerce via counterparties.
Implications
- • Higher trade-cost exposure for countries buying Iranian oil
- • Added compliance risk for Iran-linked shipping, insurance, and payments
- • Potential disruption to China-facing crude supply arrangements tied to Iran
- • Expanded US enforcement leverage during active US–Iran talks
Who is affected
- • Chinese refiners and crude importers buying Iranian oil
- • Governments and customs authorities in countries trading with Iran
- • Global shipping, marine insurers, and commodity traders handling Iran-linked cargo
- • Banks and payment intermediaries processing Iran-adjacent transactions
Source
Topics
World & Politics International Affairs Diplomacy Trade & Tariffs Energy & Power Oil & Gas